In terms of Euro pricing, the April monetary policy meeting held by the European Central Bank (ECB) was important. At the meeting, refinancing operations interest was held constant at 0.0 percent, deposit interest at minus 0.50 percent and marginal funding interest at 0.25 percent, while no changes were made to the Pandemic Emergency Asset Purchase Program (PEPP). It was important that the ECB, which reported that monthly net asset purchases of 20 billion euros would continue in the same way, indicated that bond purchases under PEPP would continue to be made at a significantly faster level than initially. After the decision of the meeting the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, they talked to reduce bond purchases, financing conditions were generally stable, but wider and said they would continue the financing conditions of the risks for continuing loose monetary policy has stressed that it's vital to life when the EU bailout fund.
On the other hand, EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen stated that the EU will also apply emissions processes to areas such as buildings and transportation. On the other hand, the US media stated that the EU was preparing to sue AstraZeneca, who failed to fulfill its vaccine commitments, and informed that Germany and France did not support the filing of a lawsuit. Spokesperson of the EU Commission stated that the EU has kept all options on the table for AstraZeneca to provide vaccine supply and that there is not yet a definite decision to initiate a legal initiative, and that they will not use 100 million doses of additional vaccine purchase options. Looking at the macroeconomic agenda, according to the data of the European Commission, consumer confidence in the Euro Zone in April was minus 8.1, above market expectations of minus 10.8.
In the United States, the global climate summit, organized by President Joe Biden and attended by the leaders of 40 countries, began in a virtual environment. U.S. President Joe Biden said the world's largest economies should step up the fight against climate change and see significant economic opportunities for climate change regulations, saying they would cut carbon emissions by half by 2030. U.S. media, on the other hand, claimed that Biden could raise the capital gains tax for wealthy citizens, from 20 percent to 43.4 percent. On the other hand, regarding reports that Biden will recognize the Armenian Genocide, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said that there is nothing new to be said about when Biden will recognize the Armenian Genocide.
In addition, following Russia's decision to withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian border until May 1, US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said that they closely monitor the situation in the region and expect action to be taken. Looking at the macroeconomic agenda, according to the data published by the US Department of Labor on a weekly basis, the applications to benefit from unemployment rights were 547 thousand below market expectations of 617 thousand, while according to the Ministry of Commerce data, current home sales in March were 6.01 million below market expectations of 6.19 million.
In Britain, remarks from the Cabinet of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson were at the forefront. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the US goal of reducing emissions by 50-52 percent by 2030 is a veerable development, and while this goal will have a transformative effect in terms of combating global climate change, they look forward to working with the US and will make legislation to reduce carbon targets. Also, UK Business Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said they saw reducing carbon emissions as a great economic opportunity. Meanwhile, UK Trade Minister Liz Truss said free trade talks with Australia were great and they wanted a deal that would strengthen ties. In addition, media reports said that the European Parliament will approve the EU-UK trade agreement on Tuesday next week.
On the other hand, the medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Board (MHRA) announced that blood clotting was detected in 168 people with the AstraZeneca vaccine in the last week, equivalent to 7.9 doses in a million doses, while news was shared in the media that British citizens can get a vaccine passport for travel abroad from May 17. In addition, Sarah Breeden, Executive Director of the Bank of England (BoE), said that climate-dependent stress tests on banks this year will not be related to capital status. Looking at the macroeconomic calendar, according to the data of Nuremberg-based market research organization GfK, consumer confidence did not meet market expectations of minus 12 percent in April and was at the level of minus 15 percent.
Asia & Turkey
In Asia, the state of emergency in Japan is expected to be expanded. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said that they focused on measures to prevent the spread of the virus during the April 29 - May 5 holiday period, while the Japanese media reported that a state of emergency was planned to be declared in 4 regions, including Tokyo, between April 25 and May 11. In addition, Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura stated that strict measures such as the closure of stores are needed to prevent increasing cases.
Looking at the macroeconomic agenda, according to the data of the Japanese Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) in March was minus 0.1 percent in line with the market expectations compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the pre-reading data of London-based global information provider IHS Markit, In Japan, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) stood at 53.3 points and services PMI at 48.3 points in April.
Volatility indices are calculated based on the purchase - sale difference of option contracts where stocks are the underlying assets. If the index value is below 10 points, it is interpreted that the optimism in the markets is the dominant and investors are eager to take risks, although it is accepted as the normal range to be calculated in the range of 10 - 30, the stress starts to increase and if it is above 30 points, pessimism is valid and there will be fluctuations in asset pricing.
Although a mixed performance of emerging country currencies in international markets limited the index's range of movement, the 10-year downward pressure on the US, which fell below the 1.60 percent level, continues. If the index, which maintains a negative outlook in this direction, can hang below 90.80 support, it can continue its losses to 90.50 support behind 90.20. In the upward trials of the index, the 50-period exponential moving average, which points to 91.40 above 91.65, is in the critical barrier position.
The euro, buoyed by the European Central Bank's announcement that its Pandemic Emergency Purchasing Program will continue until the crisis period is over, continues to collect its losses against the dollar. If the pair, which technically also retains its strength in the upward trend, can pull its transactions above resistance 1.2055 in favor of the euro, it can focus on resistance 1.2110 after 1.2080. It seems unlikely that the easing of the pair will strengthen if the trend line passing through the current 1.2000 level is not broken. But in this possible scenario, support for 1.1940 may be raised below 1.1970.
|Region||Meeting Date||Action||Current Interest Rate|
Although the weakening of the momentum in the vaccination campaign in the UK has mitigated the optimism towards the pound, the expectations that the economic activity will recover in the near term before the pandemic, due to the introduction of the normalization calendar earlier than the developed countries. In this context, the pair, which maintains its upward trend, can take the 1.3980 level above 1.3920, as long as it maintains gains above 1.3800, even though it retreats from the 1-month high. In retracements, the pair can gain strength from the main trend line, which is behind 1.3800, which points to the 1.3740 level.
Investor stress, which has recovered from the lowest level of the pandemic period in global markets, increases the demand for safe harbors. In this respect, if the decrease potential in the parity, which is the main determinant of gains in yen denominated assets, can be broken and the 107.70 support can be broken, the fibonacci 61.8 percent correction line below 107.50 can be lowered to the level of 107.20. On the other hand, the pair's upward attempts do not seem to gain volume above 108.15 unless the 108.45 level is exceeded.
The number of cases climbing globally and the strain on the Black Sea line, as well as the suppression of risk appetite, are supporting demand for precious metals. If the yellow metal, which technically ends the downward trend and switches to positive territory, can exceed the resistance of 1797, it can collect its losses from 1810 to 1822. In the downward movements of the Ons gold, 1772 and 1760 support remains important.
The upward trend of the 3rd wave of coronavirus, along with ongoing case numbers, is putting pressure on crude oil prices due to expectations that strengthening concerns about its economic impact will weaken energy demand. In line with this pressure, the commodity, which maintains a downward trend, can continue its losses to 59.20 support if it can break the psychological 60.00 level behind 60.85. In possible recovery attempts of the commodity, the resistance of 63.55 can be observed above 62.70.
A decline in US 10-year bond rates, which are considered indicators in the borrowing market, has lifted the pace ahead of the recovery path in safe havens. In this direction, silver, which is aimed at recovering its losses, can trade above the level of 26.45 and the level of 26.80 may also be possible. In commodity price swings, the weighted moving average of 50 periods can hold at 25.85. But 25.50 support can be tracked in its possible transition below this level.
The DAX30 index, which limited its losses after a decision by Germany's Constitutional Court that paved the way for the EU Recovery Fund, began to recover after the ECB's announcement on the future of asset purchases. If the index can exceed the 15 360 level in the near resistance position in a printed format, it can focus on 15 500 and then 15 640. On the other hand, it is unlikely that the easing of the German index will accelerate if the minor trend line is not broken along with the 15 120 level.
|Support||15 120||15 000||14 880|
|Resistance||15 360||15 500||15 640|
The SP500 index, which includes the world's most valuable companies, is priced with expectations that strong numbers will be revealed in the upcoming balance sheet season. Technically, the index, which maintains positive pricing behavior in the bullish channel, can climb to 4 216 if it can test the 4 192 level, which is a record high above 4 168. The lower boundary line of the minor channel is in the decisive position in that the index can start a correction movement. 4 120 behind 4 096 support may be raised in possible sags that may occur from this region.
|Support||4 120||4 096||4 072|
|Resistance||4 168||4 192||4 216|
The leading cryptocurrency, which tried to curb its losses at the lower boundary line of the short-term minor channel, broke the main rising trend by retreating with the hard selling pressure that came into play. If Bitcoin can remain below the trend after this move, which is critical in terms of the new pricing direction, it can return its earnings to 44,000, behind 47 600 and 45 800 levels. In bitcoin's possible recovery movement, resistors 51 200 and 53 000 can be followed.
|Support||47 600||45 800||44 000|
|Resistance||51 200||53 000||54 800|