Daily Analyses

29.09.2020

Fundamentals

Europe

Statements from the European Central Bank (ECB) and news feeds from the European Union (EU) about Brexit were closely followed. First, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that while inflation in the Eurozone will continue to remain at negative levels in the coming months, they will carefully evaluate all incoming data during the current period when uncertainty rises, including its developments in exchange rate changes. Ignazio Visco, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, said that the recent appreciation of euro assets had worried them, and that the ECB should make moves if this increase in value deflects its inflation target. Pablo Hernandez de Cos, a member of the ECB Governing Council, argued that fiscal stimulus should be maintained and that steps should not be taken if more stimulus is needed. On the other side, EC Vice-President Maros Sefcovic said work must accelerate to reach a deal in Brexit talks with the UK, and the UK is far from where they would agree. EU diplomats have expressed more optimism about the talks after positive remarks by UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove on a deal. Meanwhile, according to the EU document, the rule of law would be a prerequisite for benefiting from the 750 billion euro EU Recovery Fund. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, on the other hand, stressed that if the fight against coronavirus goes on the same course, high cases can be seen as in other countries, while interventions urgently need to control the number of cases. In addition, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire noted that despite the increase in coronavirus cases, re-quarantine practices across the country are not being considered. In August, employment index rose from 95.4 points to 96.3 points, its highest level since March, according to data from the Munich-based Ifo.

US

We ended the US markets with a steady stream of news. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the presidential election, scheduled for November 3, saying, "we will win a tremendous victory in the election." Trump also said claims by the New York Times, one of America's leading newspapers, that he paid only $ 750 in taxes for the years 2016 and 2017 did not reflect the truth. After meeting with his Greek counterpart, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for a peaceful settlement of sovereignty disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean, stressing that everything will be done to maintain stability in the region. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, on the other hand, argued that the U.S. economy would not fully recover unless steps were taken to make growth more inclusive. In addition, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said they could find common ground on the new stimulus package, but the Trump administration should come up with a larger proposal. Looking at the macroeconomic calendar, Dallas manufacturing business index rose from 8.0 points to 13.6 points in September, according to the Fed's data.

Britain

In Britain, the remarks from Boris Johnson's cabinet were significant. British Cabinet Minister Michael Gove, speaking after a Joint Committee meeting, the first leg of Brexit talks between the EU and the UK, said they had a good meeting and needed to make further progress. Gove added that he hoped his other talks would go well and that they wanted to implement the separation agreement in full. A spokesman for PM Boris Johnson said that negotiations with the EU have entered the final stage and there is the possibility of further informal talks with the EU, noting that although there are serious differences, there is a possible chance of a possible deal. UK Trade Secretary Liz Truss said they had made serious progress on a trade deal with the US, noting that mid-2021 on trade negotiations with the EU was not the final date and that their trade would move away from the EU in time. On the other hand, British media reported that the government planned to introduce a 2-week emergency measure on social life in London and the Northern Region of England to reduce the sudden increase in coronavirus cases.

Asia & Turkey

News flows for the largest economies of the Asian markets were limited. A statement from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) noted that the long-term balance between economic growth and risk control will be maintained, while far-reaching financing costs will be severely reduced and monetary policy will be made more flexible and targeted. A directive issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that US diplomats working in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region must obtain permission from the Foreign Ministry Commission in Hong Kong to meet with local officials and politicians, representatives of educational institutions and non-governmental organizations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China would keep its promise to make the coronavirus vaccine it will develop a global public financial one. In Japan, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato said the government would not hesitate to take additional economic measures if necessary. Additionally, Japanese media reported that the government would gradually lift restrictions on overseas travel in October. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that "Turkey will continue to be on the side of Azerbaijan" in the conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia, while he said that Turkey is in favor of cooperation, peace and is against unilateral orders on the Eastern Mediterranean. On the other hand, the Banking Regulatory and Supervisory Authority (BRSA) said that the monthly average of the asset ratio (AR) calculated by banks at the end of each month was reduced from 95 percent to 90 percent for deposit banks and from 75 percent to 70 percent for participation banks. In addition, 3rd stage tests of the Covid-19 vaccine developed by the Chinese company SinoVac were first carried out in Turkey.


Indicators

MSCI iShared ETF’s

Msciisharedetfs
MSCI iShared ETF’sDownload Image

MSCI ETF indices are a measure of stock market performance for a particular region. Exchange traded funds track ETF returns and risk measurements before taking action against the region to be invested.

10Y Bond Yields

10Ybondyields
10Y Bond YieldsDownload Image

Yields on government bonds are determined by buying and selling in the secondary market, while a high yield means that the state borrows at a higher interest rate, and a low yield means that the state borrows at a lower interest rate.


US Index

USIndex

Technically, the dollar index ended its upward movements in the minor price channel at Fibonacci 50.0 percent retracement line. If the index, which cannot beat this region and is directed to return its earnings, can break 94.00 support below, it can also test 93.70 and then 93.40 support. 94.50 and 94.70 resistances can be followed in possible attempts to recover by limiting the index's declines.

Support94.0093.7093.40
Resistance94.5094.7095.00

Parities

EURUSD

Euro/dollar, which retreated by breaking the rising trend with stable sales, decimated its losses at the lower boundary line of the minor wedge. In case, the pair can exceed 1.1700 and 1.1720 resistances above by trading in favor of the euro,it can also follow 1.1750 resistance indicated by Fibonacci 50.0 percent level. 1.1650 and 1.1630 supports may be raised if the pair is headed for negative pricing.

Support1.16501.16301.1600
Resistance1.17001.17201.1750

USDTRY

USDTRY limited its declines in the negative inclined critical band zone. Then, it held at here and refreshed its all-time peak. In case, 7.8600 resistance can be broken in the upward attacks of the pair on the second trading day of the week, positive movements can head for 7.9000 and 7.9500 resistance levels. 7.7800 and 7.7400 supports can be monitored in case of any retreats.

Support7.78007.74007.6800
Resistance7.86007.90007.9500

GBPUSD

We watched as the pair, which followed a relatively horizontal course with short-term limited price steps, ended the descending trend along with the band with transactions in favor of a sterling. If the pair exceeds 1.2900 resistance located above by holding onto the descending trend in line with the recovery request starting from the band region, it will possibly move towards 1.2940 and 1.2980 resistance levels. On the other side, 1.2820 and 1.2780 supports can be followed in case of a weakening of the pair's desire to recover.

Support1.28201.27801.2740
Resistance1.29001.29401.2980

USDJPY

USDJPY could not exceed the upper boundary line of the descending trend in its upward transactions and broke the minor ascending trend. Signaling that it can start a retracement movement with the moderate retreats in question, the pair can break 105.30 support below, and follow 105.00 and 104.70 support levels. In possible attempts to break the upper boundary line of the pair, 105.80 and 106.00 resistances might be tested.

Support105.30105.00104.70
Resistance105.80106.00106.30

Commodities

XAUUSD

Ending its positive course in the ascending trend, the precious metal is trying to limit its losses at the lower barrier of the minor price channel. We expect the recovery to start from this level in low volumes. In case, 1850 support, indicated by the lower limit line of the channel located below 1866 support, 1834 support will be on our radar. If the recovery movements gain strength, 1898 and 1914 may be on the agenda.

Support186618501834
Resistance189819141930

USOIL

From a technical point of view, crude oil is preparing for a minor descending wedge pattern, reducing its price steps. Due to the nature of the pattern, if the commodity breaks the upper boundary line of the wedge after a short-term price squeeze, it will possibly move its upward transactions towards 41.60 and 42.20 resistances located above 41.00. On the other hand, 40.00 and 39.40 supports can be followed in possible downward movements.

Support40.0039.4038.80
Resistance41.0041.6042.20

XAGUSD

It seems that the precious metal is heading to recover its losses with the responses it faced at the lower boundary line of the minor price channel in its retreats. The commodity, which we expect to end the recovery behavior at the fibonacci 50.0 percent retracement level marked by 24.40 resistance above 24.00, can also follow 22.80 and 22.40 supports, in case, it can break 23.20 support, maintaining its current downward movements.

Support23.2022.8022.40
Resistance24.0024.4024.80

Indices

DAX30

DAX ended negative movements, recovered strongly and broke the 50-period exponential moving average. As long as it stays above 12 780 level indicated by the moving average that we refer to in terms of the minor direction of the index, 13 000, 13 120 and 13 260 resistances will be on our radar. On the other side, 12 660 and 12 540 supports will be on our radar in possible falls below 12 780.

Support12 78012 66012 540
Resistance13 00013 12013 260

SP500

SP500 index took responses from the support of its trend in its declines and recovered. Then, it broke minor wedge pattern. In case, the index, which indicates that buying movements will strengthen with the recovery in question, can exceed 3 394 resistance above, it can also head for 3 422 and 3 450 resistance levels. In possible downward movements, 3 338 and 3 310 supports can be followed.

Support3 3383 3103 282
Resistance3 3943 4223 450

Cryptos

BTCUSD

Staying at the lower boundary line of the ascending channel, BTC broke the wedge pattern after upward movements. Due to the nature of the pattern; Bitcoin can exceed 11 000 level after putting pressure on the wedge. In this case, it can further move towards 11 200 and 11 400 levels. In possible retreats, on the other hand, 10 200 level, indicated by the lower limit line of the channel located below 10 500, will be on our radar.

Support10 50010 20010 000
Resistance11 00011 20011 400

Economic Calendar

CountryTime (GMT)Action
Germany 11:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
Germany 13:00 German CPI (MoM) (Sep)
usa 13:30 Goods Trade Balance (Aug)
canada 13:30 RMPI (MoM) (Aug)
usa 14:00 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul)
usa 14:15 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
usa 14:30 FOMC Member Harker Speaks
usa 15:00 CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
usa 16:40 FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
Germany 17:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
usa 18:00 FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
usa 18:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
usa 21:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

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